An analysis of the uncertainties surrounding world trade in light of moves by President Donald Trump predicts that China and the US are likely to arrive at “a long, uneasy truce rather than a binding agreement or a full-scale trade war".

China Watch is a report prepared by David Mahon, Charlie Gao, and the partners of Mahon China Investment Management.

It discusses the ramifications of Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on US$50 billion of Chinese imports containing ‘industrially significant’ technology.

It says the Chinese and US economies can endure a limited trade war, but neither country nor the global economy can afford a protracted confrontation: “In trade wars there are only losers". 

Read the report here.